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The Oscars have lost me.

When I heard the plan to increase the number of Best Picture nominees, I understood what the motion picture industry was doing.  They are trying to increase the drama and the intrigue, and get people to get out and spend more money on more nominated movies.  For me--and I suspect a lot of other people--this move has had the opposite effect.  I am watching less movies. In fact, of the 10 films nominated for Best Picture, I have seen two.

What the Academy has done is watered down the value and the prestige of the Best Picture Category.  Being the film nut that I am, for the past 20 years, I had always made a point to watch as many of the nominated films as I could, so I could make informed decisions about which films really deserved the recognition.  It's a fun little game, and helps me in my office Oscar pools.  This year, for whatever reason, I just couldn't care less. The Oscars crept up on me, and I didn't make any effort to watch any of the nominated films.  I happened to see "Up" and "Up in the Air" at different times last year, so those are the only two I can speak definitively about. 

That said, I will be watching tonight's Oscar telecast.  I am still moderately interested in who takes home the statues. But after following the Academy's hype machine for 2 decades as a member of the media, I can usually get a pretty good sense of who's going to win.  So, I'm going to conduct a little experiment.  With very little knowledge of the films and performances up for Academy Awards tonight, I am going to boldly predict who will win, based solely on the buzz that I have happened across in the past few weeks.  Keep in mind, I have done absolutely no research, I have read no insider picks.  In fact, I barely paid attention to the Golden Globes and other award shows this year.  So these picks are solely based on little ancillary tidbits that I have heard and seen, and very little firsthand knowledge--very much the way that actual Academy members make their selections. 

I'll bet that I'm not far off.  But we'll see. Okay, here goes:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Well, I saw a lot of these with the kids, but "Up" seems to be the critics' darling, so it wins here, instead of Best Picture.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I have never heard of Christoph Waltz, and never saw "Inglorious Basterds", but he's apparently going to win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mo'Nique is apparently a lock for "Precious". Never heard of her or seen the movie, but there you go.

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep in "Julie and Julia", vs. Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side".  I have talked to a number of people who loved Sandra Bullock's performance, but none could recall the name of the movie.  "Blind side" is a football term.  I wonder if that hurts her.  Meryl has more nominations than anyone and two wins in the past.  Sandra may never be here again, and I bet the Academy sides with her.

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges. Never saw the country music flick he's nominated for, but he's one of my favorite actors, and Hollywood seems to feel the same way.  He is long overdue for Oscar props.  This is his night.

BEST DIRECTOR
This may be the most intriguing category of the night. Kathryn Bigelow is the new darling of Hollywood for "The Hurt Locker".  James Cameron is the old Hollywood Titan, who turned the form on its ear with "Avatar".  I bet Bigelow gets it, just because of all the buzz that she, in particular, has gained from this flick.

BEST PICTURE
I know, Hollywood rarely divvies up Director and Picture, but they might this time around.  I don't see any way "Avatar" doesn't get Picture.  Again, I didn't see it, but it was quite a phenomenon, and apparently took filmmaking to a new level.  That sort of innovation will be awarded in technical categories, and I'm betting it will be rewarded with a Best Picture Oscar as well.

So there it is. I will review my terribly uninformed, unscientific picks tomorrow, and we'll see how I did.